Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo zostaje mistrzem w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 71,5 pkt (od 45 do 84 w 95% przebiegów). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: GKS Colet Kozłowo (68%), KS Śniardwy Orzysz (62%), LKS Mazur Wydminy (44%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo | 71,5 ± 9,9 | 45–84 | 74% | 87% | 0% |
| 2 | Stomil II Olsztyn SA | 57,4 ± 12,3 | 30–75 | 9% | 51% | 1% |
| 3 | SKS Gwardia Szczytno | 55,8 ± 11,8 | 31–72 | 6% | 43% | 1% |
| 4 | LKS Orzeł Janowiec Kościelny | 53,9 ± 13,1 | 27–73 | 6% | 41% | 1% |
| 5 | MLKS Czarni Olecko | 50,1 ± 12,4 | 26–70 | 2% | 24% | 2% |
| 6 | LZS Orzeł Czerwonka | 46,0 ± 13,3 | 22–67 | 1% | 15% | 6% |
| 7 | CWKS Vęgoria Węgorzewo | 45,1 ± 12,4 | 23–66 | 1% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | RKS Orlęta Rema Reszel | 44,9 ± 13,4 | 21–66 | 1% | 12% | 7% |
| 9 | MKS Olimpia Olsztynek | 40,0 ± 13,8 | 17–64 | 0% | 7% | 14% |
| 10 | GKS Stawiguda | 40,0 ± 12,6 | 17–61 | 0% | 4% | 12% |
| 11 | KS Mazur Pisz | 36,7 ± 12,3 | 15–59 | 0% | 2% | 17% |
| 12 | LKS Błękitni Pasym | 34,0 ± 13,7 | 12–58 | 0% | 1% | 28% |
| 13 | MBKS Victoria Bartoszyce | 32,4 ± 14,1 | 11–58 | 0% | 2% | 33% |
| 14 | LKS Mazur Wydminy | 27,7 ± 12,2 | 10–52 | 0% | 0% | 44% |
| 15 | KS Śniardwy Orzysz | 22,6 ± 12,8 | 5–48 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 16 | GKS Colet Kozłowo | 19,6 ± 12,6 | 3–47 | 0% | 0% | 68% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo | 74% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stomil II Olsztyn SA | 9% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SKS Gwardia Szczytno | 6% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Orzeł Janowiec Kościelny | 6% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS Czarni Olecko | – | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Orzeł Czerwonka | – | – | 10% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – |
| CWKS Vęgoria Węgorzewo | – | – | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – |
| RKS Orlęta Rema Reszel | – | – | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| MKS Olimpia Olsztynek | – | – | – | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 5% | – |
| GKS Stawiguda | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | – | – |
| KS Mazur Pisz | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – |
| LKS Błękitni Pasym | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | – |
| MBKS Victoria Bartoszyce | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 8% |
| LKS Mazur Wydminy | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 12% |
| KS Śniardwy Orzysz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | – | 5% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 26% |
| GKS Colet Kozłowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 16% | 44% |