Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: KS Constract Gmina Lubawa zostaje liderem po jesieni w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 33,4 pkt (od 22 do 41 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze MKS Błękitni Orneta (17%), GKS Ossa Biskupiec (22%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KS Constract Gmina Lubawa | 33,4 ± 4,8 | 22–41 | 42% | 78% | 0% |
| 2 | MKS Błękitni Orneta | 31,3 ± 4,6 | 21–38 | 17% | 64% | 0% |
| 3 | GKS Ossa Biskupiec | 29,9 ± 5,8 | 18–39 | 22% | 54% | 0% |
| 4 | ZKS Olimpia II Elbląg | 27,0 ± 5,8 | 16–37 | 10% | 34% | 1% |
| 5 | MKS DZIAŁDOWO | 25,1 ± 5,8 | 14–35 | 3% | 20% | 1% |
| 6 | KS Dąb Kadyny | 24,3 ± 6,2 | 14–36 | 4% | 18% | 2% |
| 7 | IKS Jeziorak Iława | 22,6 ± 6,1 | 12–33 | 1% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 | SMKS Huragan Morąg | 22,2 ± 5,6 | 12–33 | 1% | 9% | 3% |
| 9 | KS Wałsza Pieniężno | 21,2 ± 6,0 | 10–32 | 0% | 6% | 8% |
| 10 | KS Radomniak Radomno | 20,1 ± 6,1 | 9–31 | 0% | 4% | 10% |
| 11 | LKS Płomień Turznica | 18,4 ± 6,1 | 8–29 | 0% | 2% | 16% |
| 12 | MLKS Motor Lubawa | 17,4 ± 6,0 | 7–29 | 0% | 1% | 18% |
| 13 | LKS Tyrowo | 17,3 ± 5,8 | 8–28 | 0% | 1% | 24% |
| 14 | MKS Miłakowo | 11,6 ± 5,5 | 4–22 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 15 | KS Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie | 9,0 ± 5,3 | 1–21 | 0% | 0% | 77% |
| 16 | GSZS Delfin Rybno | 7,4 ± 5,5 | 0–18 | 0% | 0% | 79% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Constract Gmina Lubawa | 42% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Błękitni Orneta | 17% | 28% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Ossa Biskupiec | 22% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZKS Olimpia II Elbląg | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS DZIAŁDOWO | – | 6% | 11% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Dąb Kadyny | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| IKS Jeziorak Iława | – | – | 6% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – |
| SMKS Huragan Morąg | – | – | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS Wałsza Pieniężno | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 5% | – | – |
| KS Radomniak Radomno | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 6% | – | – |
| LKS Płomień Turznica | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 5% | – |
| MLKS Motor Lubawa | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 6% | – |
| LKS Tyrowo | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 8% | – |
| MKS Miłakowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 15% |
| KS Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 17% | 31% | 28% |
| GSZS Delfin Rybno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 13% | 16% | 50% |