Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: KS Constract Gmina Lubawa zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 64,5 pkt (od 39 do 81 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze MKS Błękitni Orneta (22%), GKS Ossa Biskupiec (23%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: GSZS Delfin Rybno (71%), MKS Miłakowo (62%), KS Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie (62%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KS Constract Gmina Lubawa | 64,5 ± 11,6 | 39–81 | 42% | 68% | 0% |
| 2 | MKS Błękitni Orneta | 62,3 ± 10,3 | 37–77 | 22% | 64% | 0% |
| 3 | GKS Ossa Biskupiec | 59,8 ± 12,7 | 32–78 | 23% | 57% | 0% |
| 4 | ZKS Olimpia II Elbląg | 54,5 ± 12,9 | 28–73 | 8% | 39% | 1% |
| 5 | MKS DZIAŁDOWO | 51,0 ± 12,1 | 25–69 | 2% | 23% | 2% |
| 6 | SMKS Huragan Morąg | 45,4 ± 13,0 | 21–66 | 1% | 12% | 6% |
| 7 | KS Dąb Kadyny | 44,1 ± 12,7 | 21–65 | 1% | 9% | 6% |
| 8 | IKS Jeziorak Iława | 42,8 ± 13,0 | 21–65 | 1% | 9% | 7% |
| 9 | KS Wałsza Pieniężno | 40,9 ± 12,7 | 20–64 | 0% | 6% | 9% |
| 10 | KS Radomniak Radomno | 40,6 ± 12,8 | 18–63 | 0% | 5% | 10% |
| 11 | MLKS Motor Lubawa | 38,0 ± 14,3 | 14–62 | 0% | 4% | 18% |
| 12 | LKS Płomień Turznica | 37,9 ± 12,7 | 15–59 | 0% | 1% | 18% |
| 13 | LKS Tyrowo | 33,5 ± 13,2 | 13–59 | 0% | 1% | 28% |
| 14 | MKS Miłakowo | 22,7 ± 11,5 | 7–47 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 15 | KS Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie | 22,0 ± 11,9 | 5–46 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 16 | GSZS Delfin Rybno | 18,1 ± 12,3 | 2–45 | 0% | 0% | 71% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Constract Gmina Lubawa | 42% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Błękitni Orneta | 22% | 27% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Ossa Biskupiec | 23% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 6% | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZKS Olimpia II Elbląg | 8% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS DZIAŁDOWO | – | 7% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | – | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| SMKS Huragan Morąg | – | – | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS Dąb Kadyny | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – |
| IKS Jeziorak Iława | – | – | 5% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – |
| KS Wałsza Pieniężno | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – |
| KS Radomniak Radomno | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – |
| MLKS Motor Lubawa | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – |
| LKS Płomień Turznica | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 6% | – |
| LKS Tyrowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 11% | – |
| MKS Miłakowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 6% | 9% | 17% | 26% | 20% |
| KS Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 23% | 24% |
| GSZS Delfin Rybno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 44% |